The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

I wrote previously on the subject of “Confirmation Bias”. Sometimes it is difficult to discover the answer to a technical problem because the person bringing you the problem has a hitch, assumption, or faulty logic step in their diagnostic process. Often people draw conclusions from spotty evidence. For instance a customer shows me a receiver and say’s “This receiver is bad.” I ask: “Why do you think it is bad? The answer almost always comes back something like “I plugged it in and it does not work.” The person is saying from that one test or measurement they have drawn a conclusion. It seems reasonable doesn’t it? But, really it’s pretty silly when you think about all the things that can cause an RX not to respond to a TX. You see, the real and only conclusion you can draw from the customers test is this. “In one trial, the RX produced no apparent response.” That is quite a bit different from “This receiver is bad.” Understanding the difference in those two conclusions is why some people are good at diagnostics and others are not. To be good at figuring out a problem, you are greatly advantaged by not making any assumptions or broad conclusions.

In the case of a receiver, lets go over many measurements and tests that you might perform to decide if it is in fact “Bad”.

1. Has it ever functioned successfully?
2. Does it really match the Transmitter? (is it talking the right language DSMII vs DSMX or PCM vs FM vs AM and etc…)
3. Is it on the same channel? (in the case of non-2.4ghz gear)
4. Besides looking at the stickers, did you actually look at the tags on the TX and RX xtal?
5. Is the shift the same? For example, a positive shift JR TX is never going to drive a negative shift Hitec or Futaba RX.
6. Have you driven the servo you used on the tested RX with a servo tester to make sure it actually wiggles?
7. Have you load tested the battery your driving the RX with to see that it is high enough to actually turn on an RX?
8. Are you using a switch between the battery and RX? Plug the battery in directly so your not actually testing if the switch is good.
9. Can you demonstrate the TX driving another RX to establish that your testing with a working TX? One might complain, “I flew it a week ago!” However, we’re not testing the troubled RX a week ago, we’re testing it now. 😉
10. Have you plugged a voltmeter into an empty servo port to see if there really is voltage finding it’s way to the RX?
11. Is the crystal really fitting tightly in the socket or is it loose and wobbly?
12. Does the TX have the capability of being on for programming without broadcasting?
13. Is the meter on the TX a voltmeter or RF Output indicator? What does it say?

I’m sure a sharp thinker can come up with some more things to consider. Many of the things above we’ve found at one time or another to be the cause of a non-responsive RX. Assume nothing.

Recently we had an A123 RX pack returned by a customer. He said it tested poorly, only a few hundred mah. The customer appeared to be correct, it was testing bad after several charge/discharge cycles on our bench. And, the charger would increase in voltage rapidly when we applied charge current. Strange. However, even after several trials, a good mechanic still hasn’t drawn any conclusion. He may be moving towards condemning the battery but all tests were not complete. He cut the shrink off the pack. The tabs all looked fine. He re soldered the tabs anyway just in case there was an unseen cold joint. Note: He had originally built the pack, but without emotion, he redid his original work anyway. Many people fail at this step because “they couldn’t possibly have done anything wrong.” (yea right!). The pack was cycled again with the same poor result. Now, finding a bad battery pack is rare, exceedingly rare. We know this to be true from many years of experience. So, we keep looking. I examined the pack under magnification (even though it had been re soldered by a respected pro) and all looked good. I looked at the plug under magnification and found a thin transparent film on the plastic shell. The more I looked, the more I saw this film all over the shell. Is this paint? We decided to solder a second lead onto the pack and test again. The pack tested good. What was the problem you wonder? We can only conclude the film on the plug was thin CA the customer had somehow accidentally allowed to come into contact with the plug. It had a high resistance because one or more connector pins was evidently coated in glue. After replacing this plug, the apparently bad battery pack was proven that it was always as good as new.

So, if a battery pack fails a discharge test or an RX fails to respond, is it bad?

To read about The Texas Sharp Shooter Fallacy, check out this wiki link. Reading it is what inspired me to write today’s article. It describes in somewhat technical language a common way to foul up a test.
“Texas Sharpshooter Fallicy” Wiki Link.

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Why Hold A Club Swap Meet?

There are many reasons. Most clubs having expenses to maintain and improve their model airport have need of revenue. A model swap meet can make a terrific fund raiser for this or any other purpose. It can also serve as an off-season gathering for your regions pilots. A time to renew friendships and refresh interest in our sport.

Having managed one of the country’s largest swap meets for well over a decade, I speak from experience. The ModelRama has celebrated it’s 13th year in 2012 with a record setting 174 table reservations. Our first two events were 80 tables (filled the hall we were using) and the event has grown steadily ever since. It’s my major volunteer effort each year to support the Dayton Wingmasters and our Model Airpark “Wingmaster Field”. No one puts on an event of this nature single handedly. Our event has enjoyed excellent support from our club members every year. We’ll talk more about Volunteers in a later post along with many other considerations like date planning, setup times/hours, important positions you’ll need volunteers for, getting the vendors, getting the swappers, getting the modelers there, selling raffle and 50/50 tickets, holding an auction, walking sales, indoor flying and more.

If your already holding a similar event, perhaps you’ll find something here to improve your results. The suggestions and ideas that follow where not arrived at out of thin air. For about a decade, Radical RC (my family business) attended 25 or more club swap meets per year. I’ve witnessed much good and some bad and have tried to combine all the best idea’s in one “Super Swap Meet”. We make adjustments every year and are always looking for a better way to do everything.

We may alter these posts at any time as knowledge and opinions evolve. Consider these a series of articles suggesting current best practices. You can rest assured however, that if you follow these guidelines, you’ll have a successful and profitable event. It will be the most popular event of the year and probably the least amount of work per $100 earned of anything your group has ever done. Give it a go!

Look for these posts to accumulate within “How To?” sub category “How: A Successful Swap Meet”.

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THE GREEN THING

Checking out at the store, the young cashier suggested to the older woman that she should bring her own grocery bags because plastic bags weren’t good for the environment.
The woman apologized and explained, “We didn’t have this green thing back in my days.”

The clerk responded, “That’s our problem today. Your generation did not care enough to save our environment for future generations.”

She was right — our generation didn’t have the green thing in its day or didn’t call it “green.”

Back then, we returned milk bottles, soda bottles and beer bottles to the store. The store sent them back to the plant to be washed and sterilized and refilled, so it could use the same bottles over and over. So they really were recycled. But we didn’t have the green thing back in our day.

We walked up stairs, because we didn’t have an escalator in every store and office building. We walked to the grocery store and didn’t climb into a 300-horsepower machine every time we had to go two blocks. But she was right. We didn’t have the green thing in our day.

Back then, we washed the baby’s diapers because we didn’t have the throw-away kind. We dried clothes on a line, not in an energy gobbling machine burning up 220 volts — wind and solar power really did dry our clothes back in our early days. Kids got hand-me-down clothes from their brothers or sisters, not always brand-new clothing. But that young lady is right. We didn’t have the green thing back in our day.

Back then, we had one TV, or radio, in the house — not a TV in every room. And the TV had a small screen the size of a handkerchief (remember them?), not a screen the size of the state of Montana . In the kitchen, we blended and stirred by hand because we didn’t have electric machines to do everything for us. When we packaged a fragile item to send in the mail, we used wadded up old newspapers to cushion it, not Styrofoam or plastic bubble wrap. Back then, we didn’t fire up an engine and burn gasoline just to cut the lawn. We used a push mower that ran on human power. We exercised by working so we didn’t need to go to a health club to run on treadmills that operate on electricity. But she’s right. We didn’t have the green thing back then.

We drank from a fountain when we were thirsty instead of using a cup or a plastic bottle every time we had a drink of water. We refilled writing pens with ink instead of buying a new pen, and we replaced the razor blades in a razor instead of throwing away the whole razor just because the blade got dull. But we didn’t have the green thing back then.

Back then, people took the streetcar or a bus, and kids rode their bikes to school or walked instead of turning their moms into a 24-hour taxi service . We had one electrical outlet in a room, not an entire bank of sockets to power a dozen appliances. And we didn’t need a computerized gadget to receive a signal beamed from satellites 2,000 miles out in space in order to find the nearest pizza joint.

But isn’t it sad the current generation laments how wasteful we old folks were just because we didn’t have the green thing back then?

Author, Unknown

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ModelRama 2012 In The Books

Dave,

We had a great time at the Modelrama. It was our highest grossing Swap Meet so far. I’m glad you let us sell shirts during the auction because we had another $200.00 in sales after the auction started. The best selling design was the Jumbo Corsair………


Darryl Iott
IM Screen Printing Co.

Dave:

I just wanted to take a minute and thank you and all the Dayton Wingmasters for the fine hospitality my wife and I enjoyed at the swap meet last Saturday. All the folks we met were so kind and gracious to us, we had a wonderful time. If we didn’t know better, we’d have thought you were all “Sutherners”. Please extend our thanks to everyone who worked to make the event go so smoothly, and to all the R/Cers who did business with us, we really appreciate it, and we’re looking forward to coming back again next year.

Thanks again Dave. Dianne and I look forward to seeing you again next year, or maybe next month at Perry, Georgia.

David McCormick
Dave’s R/C Electronics

Setting a new record again with 174 table reservations and thousands of dollars in auctioned models. Approximately 500 modelers attended from 5 states. The weather was a bit cool at 15 degrees Saturday morning. A perfect day to spend inside hunting new and used RC goodies! We thank you for attending and thank all the volunteers that worked hard to make this event a winner year after year. Mark your calendar for Feb 9, 2013.

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2012 Midwest ModelRama Tables Sold Out!

The show tables are sold out. In 2011 we had 138 tables, in 2012 wel have 170 tables of goodies for you to wheel and deal for. And a wonderful auction. You never know what you’ll bag at the ModelRama. Standby reservations are being taken at this time. Usually there are a few no shows. Those tables are released at 8:30am sharp. We’ll do whatever is possible to work you into the show. This is the largest swap for 100’s of miles. The only larger swap meets that I am aware of are Perry Georgia and Hamburg Pennsylvania. This is the place to get your supplies and new models for the 2012 season and a great place to sell off unwanted models and goodies to fund your Toledo run. Be there! See Midwest ModelRama below for the show flyer and all information.

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Big Hunt

Two hunters got a pilot to fly them to Canada to hunt moose.
They managed to bag 6.
As they were loading the plane to return, the pilot said the plane could take only 4 moose.
The two lads objected strongly.
Last year we got six. The pilot let us take them all and he had the same plane as yours.
Reluctantly, the pilot gave in and all six were loaded.
However, even on full power, the little plane couldn’t handle the load and went down.
Somehow, surrounded by the moose bodies, Paddy and Mick survived the crash.
After climbing out of the wreckage, Paddy asked Mick,
Any idea where we are?’
Mick replied, ‘I think we’re pretty close to where we crashed last year.

Author Unknown

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Midwest ModelRama

Models Models Everywhere!

Real Customers Browsing

Midwest ModelRama Details. It’s time to write it on you calendar and plan to attend the ModelRama. It’s held each year in Dayton Ohio and is the largest Swap/Auction in the Tri-State. As you can see from the 2011 images, it’s a show with plenty of shoppers and lots of tables loaded with goodies. Your sure to find new and used ready to flys. We always have a good selection of models from excellent to resto. Also lots of suppliers and goodie boxes galore to root through. Not only a good selection of of used but also new will be on hand. Bring a few extra bills, your sure to find something worth sneaking in the house here. If you’ve got some items you want to clear out, try our auction. We’ll turn that pile of once-loved goodies into cash so you can get what you really want.

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